Copenhagen Accord, 18 December

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Wednesday 16 December

The news today has mostly been of turmoil inside and outside the conference venue. Inside, the conference president, Connie Hedegaard, resigned to make way for the Danish Prime Minister. Outside, there have been more protests and 260 arrests – with groups like Friends of the Earth and other NGOs now barred from the venue (an alternative venue has been found for observers: http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=3022).  

Make or Break   

World leaders from Angela Merkel to Ban Ki-moon have been queuing up to say that a ‘make or break’ point has been reached. Gordon Brown welcomed new proposals from Ethiopia’s prime minister and African Union climate negotiator, Meles Zenawi – which represented a softening of earlier demands from African nations (http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=3021).

Apparently the UK has been leading the charge in attempting to persuade the USA to commit to greater cuts in emissions, with Gordon Brown now adopting an informal position as one of  a handful of lead negotiators (see here). We also learned that Hillary Clinton would be flying out to Copenhagen, to be there for the US president’s arrival  on Friday http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=3013 .

The Economist offers a summary of where the negotiations have got to:

The overall shape of the Copenhagen agreement is proving to be the main bone of contention. One proposal is that rich countries should remain subject to Kyoto-level emission cuts, which are due to expire in 2012, until 2020. Poor countries are adamant that richer countries should be held responsible with a binding protocol. But the rich countries that signed up to Kyoto (mostly European ones) are refusing to agree to do this unilaterally because they would get nothing in return from America, which is not party to Kyoto, or from any developing countries, on which makes Kyoto makes no demands.

A compromise that is contained in the draft text, suggesting that richer countries would cut emissions, but without the binding nature of Kyoto, may offer some way to get beyond this impasse. But there are plenty of other ways for things to go wrong once the heads of government turn up. One concern is the question of what, if anything, poorer countries will be bound to do themselves. The current text requires that developing countries act only when rich countries pay them to do so. It seems highly unlikely that an agreement will be reached without further requirements of some sort. It is up to the conference to work out what they might be. 

The Prince of Wales (President of the National Trust [England, Wales and Northern Ireland], Patron of the National Trust for Scotland and the National Trust for Jersey) spoke at COP yesterday – warning delegates that the ‘eyes of the world’ were on them. In his keynote speech he reflected that ‘it is no understatement to say that, with your signatures, you can write our future.’ The Prince was speaking at the invitation of the Danish government. He came on behalf of The Prince’s Rainforests Project, which he set up in 2007 to curb deforestation.

REPORT FROM COP15 – DAY 9 – Tuesday 15 December 2009, by Simon Molesworth

Climate Justice: One of the most outstanding sessions I attended today was organised by Oxfam. This was billed as “COP15 International Climate Hearing” during which both Archbishop Desmond Tutu and HE Mary Robinson, the former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights spoke and then presided over the hearing of evidence from speakers from the Developing World, including Peru, Kiribati, India and Uganda. It followed the format of the Oxfam Climate Change hearings which have been conducted in 36 countries since February 2009, during which 1.5 million people gave evidence on how Climate Change has impacted upon their lives. The whole exercise was extremely moving.

The Archbishop gave a wonderfully heartfelt and moving speech. Some of his words are as follows: “the Climate hearings showed that everyone had a common request: a call to take action, a request to the world to hear them, to share their concerns”. “Responding to the challenge of Climate Change gives us a choice: the difference between survival and drowning – we are all in this together”. “In this world there are all kinds of competing voices – the voices in the Climate hearings were people testifying about their world, people we should not ignore”. “There have been a growing number of climate catastrophes. People are witnesses to a changed world” “I have seen it with my own eyes in Southern Africa – experiencing the worst drought ever…” “(Catastrophes around the world) .. this is not just coincidental, they are not random events” “Today the entire world suffers …These people were testifying to a (worldwide) disaster already in progress”. “You know we have it in our hearts; we hear it in our hearts the need to rein it in”. “But Climate Change is truly a story on injustice – no judge would punish the innocent. It is the innocent (the poor) who suffer most. It is this situation that we face today. The biggest polluters must pay the highest price to those who suffer the most”. “We have just one earth home; if it is destroyed, there is no other; we are in it together. We are going to either swim or drown together. We are all inter-connected – we are bound together in this. If one goes down, we will bring everyone else down, so we must act together”.

Mary Robinson observed that the testimonies from the Developing Nation witnesses essentially tell the same story. It is clear that Climate Change exacerbates the challenges they are already suffering. She said they repeatedly have heard of the resilence of communities in the face of the Climate events. They repeatedly heard how people are determined to have their voices heard. She said they had clearly heard of the impacts of extreme events. She said that Climate Change was undermining human rights at unparalleled scale. The injustice of human induced Climate Change was contrary to Declaration of human Rights. Climate Change is and will lead to social disorder with deep and global injustice. She said it was the poorest who will be most moved and hurt by indecision and delay here at COP15. She says that these people legitimately ask “Where are the leaders?” They demand Climate justice. When negotiations end and the witnesses return to their communities, what will be their verdict? How will the world’s leaders be judged? These people rightly demand a full and just life. People all round the world are saying “we have only one world, it is a “we” , it is not a them and us”.

There was much more of great substance that was said by Mrs Robinson and the four witnesses testimonies are worth repeating. I will use more of their material in my next report. 

Awareness Raising – Television Interview: I gave my second in depth television today (the three television interviews during the first two days of COP15 were shorter media grabs). Today’s interview was with the official UN Television station set up for the COP processes, Climate Change TV, which can be accessed via the web on www.climate-change.tv  The interviewing journalist, Victoria, ranged widely over the reasons why INTO is concerned about Climate Change, so I managed to cover most of the issues of importance to INTO. Coincidentally, the journalist was originally from my home town Melbourne. I am advised the interview will be edited and posted up on the website within 48 hours.

The earlier TV interview, filmed on Saturday, was with www.oneclimate.net I understand it was viewed by over a million viewers and has now been posted on to at least one other social issues online site. I am told the interview is now accessible via the YouTube link from oneclimate.net

Logistics Again: Experiencing the horrors of yesterday’s registration process at the Bella Centre, I rose at 6.00am to be on a train before 7.00. In the context of it being dark until about 9.00am every morning, as I arrived at the Bella Centre shortly after 7.40am it was absolutely pitch dark. However I could see with the assistance of security lights that there was already a queue, yet again, stretching as far as the eye could see. Today was the first day of the new double pass process and the compulsory reduction in the size of delegations, so the security checks were extraordinary – I was asked no less than eleven times to produce my two passes as I made my way through the maze of checks. After some initial chaos due to converging queues, the lucky “already registered with double pass” people, of whom I was one, got through relatively quickly – 50 minutes.

As I passed through the last barrier, I looked back with sympathy at what now appeared to be thousands of people in the freezing weather, pressed up against the cyclone wire barriers. I was now  inside and it was only 8.30am. Unlike every other day, the great halls were relatively empty as the security process meant masses of people could not get in concurrently. This had a serious impact on all the first sessions which were to start at 9.00am. In an auditorium able to hold a couple of hundred, I sat with about 30 people as the chair apologised for the delay in starting as only three of the five VIP speakers had managed to get through. The session started 20  minutes late, without the missing speakers and with half an audience.

My sympathy for my fellow delegates still waiting in the queues was even greater when at 1.00pm I looked outside and saw that it was now snowing steadily.

As I inferred in yesterday’s report, democratic processes are now being seriously undermined by these deteriorating COP15 administrative arrangements. Having been compulsorily reduced in numbers today, it is now official for Thursday: 1,000 observers and no more, and then we understand 100 on Friday – with coordinating leaders of each NGO grouping being tasked with the impossible reduction process. The acronyms used by the UN Secretariat are laughable: BINGOS, ENGOS, RINGOS, TUNGOS, YOUNGOS, IPOS, Farmers, Gender. Whereas “Farmers” and “Gender” are pretty obvious, the others have the following respective meanings: Business & Industry NGOs, Environmental NGOs, Research & Independent NGOs, Trade Union NGOs, Young (people) NGOS, and Indigenous Peoples Organisations. Given that our INTO delegation officially signs off tomorrow, with the last of us flying home, I did reflect on what might have otherwise been the case if we had wished for INTO to be present on the last two days. How unfair is the approach where, accepting that INTO is an ENGO, the director of Climate Action Network International has the responsibility of deciding whether INTO and every other ENGO should or should not be allowed in when the director in question most probably knows nothing of INTO. 

Report from COP15, Copenhagen Day 8, Monday 14 December 2009, by Simon Molesworth

Negotiations: Today has not been a good day at COP15, in fact it has been so bad that it does not auger well for the ultimate outcome which is to be sought this Friday. Despite intense informal negotiations which occurred throughout the weekend between the national parties, the plenary session began with the Danish president of the Conference indicating that informal inter-party consultations would occur during the afternoon in an effort to broker an advance. It would appear that there is a growing belief that the Developed Nations are favouring a new protocol rather than keeping the Kyoto Protocol and focussing on revisions of it. The Developing Nations, especially those in Africa, are concerned that if Kyoto is replaced they will loose the existing hard-won targets and be faced with a weaker framework. The informal side negotiations were seen as potentially facilitating a weakening of the Kyoto Protocol, despite the expressed intent of the Danish COP15 president to have these discussions focus on a continuation of Kyoto. So the suggested approach was rejected by the G77+China Group of nations representing some 120 nations, with China accusing the Danish chair of an undemocratic process, saying the processes of negotiation should be in the open rather than potentially leading to individual deals and division. Led by the African nations there was then a mass departure of parties which forced the plenary session to be suspended.

This situation led to an appalling crush in the packed plenary chamber, a chamber that seats many thousands of observers, where uninformative minimal announcements occurred with no indication as to what was occurring. Delegates from the hundreds of NGOs remained seated, in fact they were required to remain seated, for a period of time extending over almost three hours. At one point there were indications that there would be a resumption, but these proved to be false hopes. Finally at about 1.30pm non-party observers were able to leave the room.

In the afternoon the national parties resumed their participation, so some intense behind the scenes negotiations must have succeeded, however the shock was the resumption was to be in camera, with all observers from NGOs and IGOs excluded. I found myself talking to a head of one of the UN agencies who was furious, saying that even the UN agencies had been ordered out including UNESCO, UNEP, IUCN, UNDP and the World Bank.

Many delegates are now well and truly disillusioned, with a growing fear that an unacceptable close to the Conference is likely. Nevertheless, some many still cling to the hope that the US President Obama will reveal a package that shifts the momentum. A legally binding agreement from COP15 is most probably now unlikely, but an agreement at a political level to a time frame intended to progress the negotiations towards such a legally binding agreement may be achievable, with the terms to be settled prior to COP16 in Mexico City in 2010.

Sacking of the Danish Environment Minister: One of the shock revelations that greeted us today was that the Danish Prime Minister Mr Razmussen has had a major falling out with his Environment Minister, Connie Hedegaard, the COP15 conference president over her approach. So although Mrs Hedegaard cannot be removed by her Prime Minister from her UN position as COP15 president, he did what he had power to do and that was sack her as the Environment Minister in the Danish Government. Mr Razmussen leads a coalition Danish government in which he leads the conservatives and Mrs Hedegaard is more of a progressive.

It has been generally recognised by COP15 delegates, especially by those wishing to see a strong uncompromising outcome from the Conference, that Mrs Hedegaard has been doing a great job. She has been forceful in all her public statements, endeavouring to lead from front. Quoted in one of the COP15 conference papers – Recharge – on Friday she said: “I have never seen anything like it when it comes to political willingness. This is our chance. If we miss it, it could take years before we get a better one – if we ever do”.

In this day of being removed as Environment Minister and experiencing a mass walkout of 120 nation parties, I am informed by an environment NGO colleague that in the course of the afternoon she addressed a packed side event plenary attended by NGOs. It was reported to me that Mrs Hedegaard presented one of the most stirring, challenging and uplifting speeches he had ever heard from any government minister. Mrs Hedegaard called on the NGOs present to put greater pressure on their respective world leaders, saying that a better outcome is more likely if the voices of the world community are heard loud and clear. Perhaps such rally rousing “call to arms” runs counter to the style of the conservative Danish Prime Minister. I do note, however, that my Saturday report mentioned an excellent speech calling for decisive Climate Change action delivered by Mr Razmussen to the opening of the Bright Green Expo – I do not resile from that observation. It is true that there are many shades of green!

If anything there seems to be a growing determination on the part of the Developing Nations not to accept any compromises. It seems clear that these Nations will demand more action and if they are not happy they will walk out again. Although the intensity of effort being put in by the almost 1,000 NGOs present has not abated, I think there is a growing underlying despondency creeping in to the “corridor” conversations. Some have expressed the view, which on first hearing one thinks is perhaps a touch cynical, but on reflection may in fact be accurate, that the increasing security measures (see below) may well be to ensure there is not some sort of spontaneous angry response to a poor outcome at close on Friday.

Logistics: The arrangements at the Bella Centre for delegates has now reached an appalling state. In an earlier report, I gave some attendance figuress at COP15. New people are still arriving in their hundreds, perhaps thousands, straining an already unacceptable situation. It appears that many delegates chose to only attend the second COP15 week, hence the many new hopeful registrants. Sadly these people were faced with a totally unacceptable situation.

Today the Danish transport authorities ordered the close of the Bella Centre station because the pack of people in its vicinity was so great that they could not be safely managed. So passengers on the Met, such as myself, had to travel to the next station and then walk back along the line to the Bella Centre. On arriving at the Bella Centre the queues extended for what must have been close to a kilometre or more in length with people grouped about 2 or 3 abreast. Thankfully, having registered last week, I could walk pass these people and join a shorter queue of just a hundred or so.

Throughout the day I heard reports from people in casual conversation that they knew of delegates were still in the queue. Professor Rob Fowler, the Chair of the IUCN Environmental Law Commission (with whom INTO entered in to an MOU), reported that Professor Ian Lowe AO, president of the Australia Conservation Foundation and one of Australia’s most respected citizens having held numerous senior positions joined the queue to be registered at 9.15am and gave up at 4.30pm returning to his hotel after over seven hours, freezing and frustrated. In that same queue was Dr Ashok Khosla, one of India’s most respected citizens and former long-standing Director of UNEP, who was kept waiting for over four hours.

Tomorrow Tuesday a new security system is being imposed whereby all delegations are being compulsorily reduced in size. INTO’s registration of six delegates is being reduced to just two, myself and Professor Ju Ju Wang, President of the Taiwanese National Trust. Without a second pass, a delegate will be refused admission. On Wednesday the world leaders arrive so everyone is expecting greatly increased security. On Thursday, the maximum attendance from all NGO delegations will be reduced to just 1,000 people. There is also a suggestion that on Friday the observers will be reduced to a mere 200 people. Given that the registered delegate numbers had reached 35,000, it will not surprise anyone to understand that these new arrangements are giving rise to much ill feeling.

Despite all these security arrangements and extreme problems with administrative arrangements, it is an extraordinary experience to walk around the Bella Centre and regularly see obviously important people. There are many national leaders already present, identifiable by the size of the entourages that accompany them, and some are in their national dress. Many are very familiar faces, even if the name escapes one until they have passed: but not so with former US Vice President Al Gore who has just addressed a side event on the shrinking polar ice; while UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Mary Robinson addressed a session on climate justice in another nearby auditorium. As I typed this paragraph, the Prime Minister of one of the Pacific nations, I think the Solomon Islands, just gave an impromptu interview standing a couple of metres from me, with the cluster of cameramen knocking my work station.

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